XAUUSD – Gold Holds 4,279, Bigger Breakout Still Possible

XAUUSD – Gold Holds 4,279, Bigger Breakout Still Possible Gold is closing the week at a very important technical area. On the 12H chart, price is trading around 4,349 after a strong rejection from the recent upper zone near 4,697. The market has already broken above the previous long-term downtrend line, which is an important structural change. However, after that breakout, gold has not continued directly higher. Instead, price is now pulling back and testing whether the broken structure can become support. This is the key point for me: gold is no longer in the old clean downtrend, but buyers still need to prove that the breakout is real. Technical structure: Gold broke above the long-term downtrend line. After reaching the 4,600 – 4,697 area, price started to correct. The current reaction zone is around 4,279 – 4,350. This area is important because it sits near Fibonacci support and the previous breakout zone. If buyers defend this area, gold may create a higher-low structure. The first confirmation for recovery is a break back above 4,509. A stronger medium-term bullish confirmation comes above 4,697. If gold fails to hold 4,279, price may retest the deeper support zone near 4,000 – 3,950. Key levels to watch: Current price: 4,349 Short-term reaction area: 4,279 – 4,350 Strong support / buy reaction zone: 4,000 – 3,950 First recovery confirmation: 4,509 Medium-term bullish confirmation: 4,697 Upside target after confirmation: 4,850 – 5,000 Main scenario: If gold holds above 4,279 and forms a bullish reaction, buyers may try to rebuild momentum toward 4,509. A clean break above 4,509 would show that the correction is losing strength. If price later breaks above 4,697, the medium-term bullish structure becomes much clearer, and gold may continue toward the 4,850 – 5,000 area. Alternative scenario: If gold fails to hold 4,279 and closes below this area, the recovery structure becomes weaker. In that case, the market may need one deeper liquidity sweep toward 4,000 – 3,950 before buyers return with stronger confirmation. Hannah’s view: Gold is standing between two important stories. The first story is bullish: price has already broken the long-term downtrend, and if buyers defend the current support, this pullback can become a healthy retest before continuation. The second story is cautious: gold has not yet confirmed a strong continuation above 4,509 and 4,697, so chasing the market too early is risky. For now, I prefer to watch the reaction around 4,279 – 4,350. If this zone holds, the recovery setup remains valid. If it fails, gold may need a deeper correction before the next bigger bullish attempt. Main view: gold can still build a medium-term bullish recovery, but only if buyers defend the current support and reclaim 4,509. No confirmation means no trade. Do you think gold will defend this breakout retest zone, or will price sweep deeper before the next recovery?