NIFTY : Bulls Still in Control?

NIFTY 50: Bulls Still in Control, But the Ascending Channel Is Facing Its First Real Test 1. Market Structure – The Bulls Have the Upper Hand NIFTY continues to maintain a bullish short-term structure on the 15-minute chart, forming a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the swing low around 22,499.80 on October 28. The recovery has been taking place inside a well-defined ascending channel, indicating that buyers have maintained control over the short-term trend. However, the index faced selling pressure near 23,118.95, resulting in a pullback towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel. NIFTY currently stands at 23,010.85, and the price action around the channel support will be important in determining the next directional move. The broader structure remains positive, but buyers need to defend the current support area to maintain their momentum. 2. Important Support and Resistance Levels Here are the key levels I am tracking: Resistance Levels • 23,118.95: Immediate resistance and the recent swing high. A sustained breakout above this level could revive bullish momentum. • 23,265.65: Next major upside resistance and potential target if the index successfully clears the previous swing high. Support Levels • 23,000–23,010: Immediate ascending channel support. Price is currently testing this area. • 22,936.75: Important intermediate support. A breakdown below this level could weaken the current bullish structure. • 22,880–22,930: Demand zone where buyers may attempt to defend the price. • 22,806.55: Previous breakout area and an important support reference. • 22,499.80: Recent swing low and the origin of the current recovery. 3. What Happened Recently? NIFTY witnessed a sharp decline towards 22,499.80 on October 28. However, buyers quickly stepped in, initiating a recovery. The index gradually reclaimed the 22,806.55 level and continued moving higher, forming higher highs and higher lows. The ascending channel has provided a useful framework for tracking this recovery. More recently, NIFTY tested the 23,118.95 resistance but failed to sustain its position above that area. Selling pressure pushed the index back towards the lower channel boundary. The current pullback is therefore an important test of the ongoing bullish structure. A successful defence of channel support could result in another attempt towards the recent high. However, a breakdown could trigger a deeper correction towards the demand zone. 4. What to Expect Next? – Three Possible Scenarios Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation If NIFTY holds the ascending channel support and starts moving above 23,045–23,060, buyers could attempt to push the index towards: • 23,118.95 • 23,265.65 A sustained 15-minute close above 23,118.95 would provide stronger confirmation of bullish continuation. Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown If the index breaks below the ascending channel and fails to reclaim it, we could see further weakness towards: • 22,936.75 • 22,880–22,930 demand zone • 22,806.55 A sustained move below 22,880 would significantly weaken the immediate bullish setup. Scenario 3: Sideways Consolidation NIFTY could also remain range-bound between the immediate channel support and 23,118.95 resistance. In this case, I would prefer waiting for a decisive breakout or breakdown rather than anticipating the next move. 5. The Level That Matters Most For me, 22,936.75 is an important level to watch. As long as NIFTY maintains its position above the broader support zone, the current recovery structure remains relatively healthy. A sustained breakdown below this area would increase the probability of a deeper correction. Final Thoughts NIFTY is still trading within an ascending channel, but the recent rejection near 23,118.95 suggests that buyers are taking a breather. The next reaction around channel support should provide clues about whether the bulls are ready for another upward move or whether sellers are gaining control. I will be watching the price action around these levels rather than predicting the next candle. Let the price confirm the direction. The market has enough surprises already! ________________________________________ Disclaimer: This is my technical analysis for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves risk. Always manage your position size and use your own judgment.